On February 6 UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned the General Assembly of a prospect of another world war on the horizon.
“I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war. It is doing so with itseyes wide open,” he said.
Last year, almost 30 conflicts and wars were waged on a regional or international scale, reaching most continents.
Mr Guterres referred to about half a dozen conflicts of particular concern in his address, one of which was predictably the war in Ukraine.
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As the world prepares to mark the first anniversary of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the natural thought process is to ask how the rest of the conflict will unfold and when it will end.
For now, the prognoses remain pessimistic.
The shockwaves of this regional war are felt across the world, from Africa all the way to north-east Asia.
Here is why.
Moscow’s Political Safari
Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov embarked on a quickfire tour of west Africa, visiting Mali, Mauritania, and Sudan.
This was Lavrov’s third official tour of Africa of the past six months.
Previous visits included South Africa, Eswatini, Angola and Eritrea.
Western observers might say Lavrov went to Africa because the rest of the world wants nothing to do with Russia anymore.
Because Moscow is desperate for any attention these days.
The reality is somewhat different.
Lavrov’s latest diplomatic efforts were an attempt to solidify the geopolitical and economic gains Russia has made on the continent over the past six years or so.
He can return to Russia with a series of lucrative military agreements in the bag as well as evidence that he has managed to dilute Western influence in parts of western Africa.
France will feel the effect the most.
Last year, the French were forced to pull their final troops from Mali.
Many experts argue the military pull-out was in large part due to Bamako turning to Moscow, rather than Paris, to counter the rise of armed militants in central Mali linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda.
Then late last month, neighbouring Burkina Faso called on France to remove its remaining 400 soldiers from the country.
By March, the French are likely to comply with the demand.
Russia’s private military group Wagner was believed to be closely involved in the recent developments in that west African nation, having been enlisted by Burkina Faso’s government to keep order.
But that’s not all.
Lavrov’s last stop was Sudan, where Russia has plans to establish a naval support facility.
The move triggered a great deal of concern in the West, with the US and other allied governments reportedly putting intense pressure on Sudan to cancel the agreement.
Yet on February 10, Lavrov publicly confirmed that the agreement was in place and was in the process of being ratified by both sides.
The deal would allow Russia to set up a naval facility on the Red Sea, which is a pivotal waterway for the global economy, as well as a strategic transit point for the world’s militaries.
It would also give Moscow strategic control of the Suez Canal and the Strait Bab el-Mandeb, thus giving the Kremlin an additional tool for geopolitical bargaining.
It would help the Kremlin firm up its grip over western and central Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf, as well as expand its reach into the north-western Indian Ocean.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has his eye on the southern end of the Indian Ocean too.
The Russian, Chinese and South African navies are holding their second joint naval exercise from February 17-26.
Codenamed MOSI, the joint wargames will be staged off Durban in the Indian Ocean.
The exercise will include the live firing of Russia’s newest Tsirkon hypersonic missile from the Admiral Gorshkov guided-missile frigate.
Although the West will feel antagonised by this show of force, these body moves by Moscow are unlikely to receive condemnation from many African nations.
It’s worth remembering that most countries on the continent did not condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and some even sided with Moscow.
The problem with Comrade Kim
As Lavrov toured Africa, the North Korean regime was itself making Pyongyang an international news item.
On February 8, Kim Jong-un attended a lavish night military parade to formally mark the 75th anniversary of the creation of the North Korean armed forces.
The massive show of force involved over 20,000 personnel and a large display of the DPRK’s missile arsenal.
For the first time North Korea paraded about a dozen Hwansong-17 nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are thought to have an operational radius sufficient to hit the continental US.
The significance of this symbolic event is twofold.
Clearly, North Korea’s mighty display was a warning shot to Washington following a January statement by the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin.
Last month Austin reaffirmed the US’ commitment to offer the Republic of Korea extended deterrence, which would include nuclear assets to counter North Korean threats.
Pyongyang’s show of force should also be considered in the context of the war in Ukraine.
North Korea is becoming increasingly fervent in its support for Russia.
Last year Kim Jong-un was among very few leaders who openly supported the invasion of Ukraine.
Then last month, allegations emerged that the North Koreans were supplying the Wagner group with heavy armaments.
More recently, it was reported the North Korean regime would authorise the dispatch of thousands of “workers” with military backgrounds to eastern Ukraine to assist with “reconstruction”.
If these workers end up playing the same role as Chinese volunteers during the Korean War, the conflict in Ukraine could take a dramatic turn.
Moscow could also then entertain the idea of withdrawing from the international sanctions’ regime against Pyongyang as well as Tehran, which would have massive global consequences.
In response to new levels of Western military assistance for Ukraine, Russia may also start arming its new de facto allies with military technologies they don’t have, while receiving niche capabilities it currently lacks.
That in turn would further escalate tensions in the Gulf and across north-east Asia.
The UN Secretary-General's warning isn't far off the mark.
Moscow is fanning the flames of global conflict, and doing so with its eyes wide open.
And the longer the war in Ukraine burns, the further the flames spread - pushing the world closer and closer to a World War Three that would be cataclysmic for all parties.
Dr. Alexey Muraviev is Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia.